Thursday, December 18, 2008

Want A Better Way To Trade The Forex

Are you sick and tired of all the so-called ‘trading systems’ that give you nothing but false hope and unrepeatable results?

How would you like a Proprietary Formula that works whether the Market is up or down and lets you concentrate on just a few currencies at a minimum investment?

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• when you should enter, and
• when you should exit the market?
Finally, someone is willing to provide you with both daily and weekly trading signals that you can easily follow and profit from. He will give you the EXACT entry, stop, profit and limit orders needed to take action and achieve success in the foreign exchange market place. (In other words, no more second-guessing… he tells you exactly what you should do in order to profit from the day’s moves!)
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Sunday, December 14, 2008

Experimental Studies of Rationality:

While most experimental studies suggest that traders are rational,
there are some examples of irrational behavior in some of these
studies.

One such study was done at the University of Arizona. In an experimental study, traders were told that a payout would be declared after each trading day, determined randomly from four possibilities - zero, eight, 28 or 60 cents. The average payout was 24 cents. Thus the share's expected value on the first trading day of a fifteen day experiment was $3.60 (24*15), the second day was $3.36 .... The traders were allowed to trade each day. The results of 60 suchexperiments is summarized in the following graph

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Friday, December 12, 2008

- What’s on the Horizon for the Chinese yuan?

While the early weeks of 2005 ushered in modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar vs. the Euro, a major wild card remains on the currency horizon in the form of China. Throughout 2004, amid
continuing weakness in the greenback, governments around the world pointed to the Chinese yuan’s peg to the U.S. dollar as a potentially destabilizing global economic force. A potential
revaluation of the Chinese currency vs. the dollar has long been a hot topic in the forex markets and is likely to remain so as long as the bears continue to dominate action in the buck.
While analysts and traders are divided on the likelihood of a potential revaluation for the yuan in the first half of 2005, let’s take a look at the background leading up to the current situation. What form would a revaluation take, and what could it mean for the dollar and the other majors?
Hot growth
China has exploded onto the global economic scene in recent years. With a population of nearly 1.3 billion people, China’s huge demand for raw materials as it strives to produce new goods
for its burgeoning middle class has helped support tremendous price increases in many global commodity markets. Impressive gross domestic product (GDP) numbers have rolled out of China in recent years, with most analysts believing final growth numbers came in around 9.3 percent in
2004.
Amid concerns of potential overheating late last year, the Chinese government hiked interest rates — for the first time in nine years — by 0.27 percent, bringing its benchmark lending rate to
5.58 percent. “For a while last year, everyone was worried about a [growth] crash,” says Jim Glassman, senior economist at J.P.
Morgan Chase in New York. “We don’t think those fears make sense.” While a modest slowdown is forecast for 2005, economists still expect growth in the 8.0 to 8.5 percent region for China this year. China is on a rapid growth path.
Much has been written on the hardworking nature of the Chinese, which will likely play into speculation regarding the future growth prospects of this nation.
“[The Chinese] are some of the most industrious and financially aggressive people in the world,” says Brian Dolan, director of research at Gain Capital. “A lot of them are worker bees where everyone has two jobs. That economy is not going to experience a slowdown of any consequence for many years to come.”

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1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
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3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

Friday, November 28, 2008

ForexGen | You Don't Always Have To Hedge To Limit Your Losses


Forex Trading Strategy
: Alternative to Hedging
One of the popular ways for traders to cover themselves is through hedging. This is when you place an opposite order to offset a losing position. However, this doesn't always work well.
For medium and long term currency trading, it can help to have an alternative to hedging. Forex Strategy Secrets describes a forex trading strategy

1. Place a stop loss order on your position -- something of about 40 to 50 pips.
2. Watch as the market goes against you.
3. Allow the market to continue (perhaps your position loses between 30 and 100 pips).
4. Put in an order for the same position as your stop loss position. Whether you are long or short, keep that position. This way you will benefit when the market turns around.
5. As the market turns around, you are picked up and you ride the wave.
Obviously, as with any forex trading strategy, there are risks and this could totally backfire. But it is an interesting alternative to hedging, and could be useful for some traders.

Why ForexGen?

1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

ForexGen Foreign Exchange Risk Hedging Application

Companies involved in foreign trade transactions are active participants in the global forex market worldwide. Exporters always need to sell, and importers to buy foreign currency. Exchange rates constantly fluctuate in the global forex market. As a result, the actual value of a product or a service bought with or sold for foreign currency may vary significantly, making an advantageous contract disadvantageous or even loss-making. Of course, the reverse situation when fluctuation of exchange rate makes profit is also true, but a commercial company is not tasked with deriving profit from exchange rate fluctuation. It is important for a commercial company to be able to plan the real cost of bought or sold goods so companies make a wide use of forex risk hedging in their business.

Money as well as future income or expenses in foreign exchange is a subject to forex risk. A company normally keeps accounting records in one currency (e.g. U.S. dollars) thus profits or losses from revaluation of items denominated in foreign currencies are possible if their exchange rates change.

Forex risk hedging is a protection of funds from unfavorable exchange rate trends and consists in fixing the current value of these funds by entering into transactions in the FOREX market. Hedging results in disappearance of the exchange rate fluctuation risk for a company, which enables it to plan its activities and to see its financial result not distorted by rate fluctuations. Transactions in the Forex market are realized on the margin trading principle. This trading type has a number of peculiarities which made it very popular. A small initial deposit gives the possibility to trade with the amounts that are many (dozens and hundreds of) times lager than the initial deposit. This excess is called credit leverage. Trading takes place without any actual money supply, which reduces overhead charges and enables to open positions by both purchase and sale of currency (including the one that differs from the deposit currency). The peculiarity of forex risk hedging of using transactions without actual cash flow (with use of credit leverage) gives the opportunity not to extract significant funds from a company’s turnover.

Two major hedging types can be singled out – purchaser’s hedging and seller’s hedging. Purchaser’s hedging is used to alleviate the risk of potential growth in prices for goods. Seller’s hedging is applied in the opposite situation, to minimize the risk of potential decrease in prices for goods.
The overall hedging principle for foreign trade transactions consists in opening a forex position in a trading account with the view of a future cash conversion transaction. An importer needs to purchase foreign exchange, so the importer opens a position by purchasing foreign exchange in the trading account in advance. On the date of actual foreign exchange purchase in its bank, the importer closes the position. An exporter needs to sell foreign exchange, so the exporter opens a position by selling foreign exchange in the trading account, and on the date of actual foreign exchange sales the exporter closes the position.

Forex risk hedging through FIBO:
To take advantages of hedging, it is necessary to open a trading account with our company. The deposit amount should allow, subject to use of credit leverage, to open a position you need and to meet margin requirements if the market goes counter your position. If the market will continue moving counter your position you will have to make an additional deposit to maintain margin requirements.

Forex risk hedging fee:
As is known, one should always pay for risk reduction. Hedging gives rise to several expenditure items. Any transaction entered into the Forex market is connected with the costs represented by a difference between the purchase price and the sales price for a currency (spread). However, in the existing market environment this difference is normally equal to 0.05% - 0.1% of the transaction amount, which is insignificant. One has to keep a position open during a long period of time, and each day a position is moved to the following date (rolled over), taking into account interest rates on currencies participating in the transaction. In the current market environment, this fee is equal to 0.01% per day, or 0.3% of the transaction amount per month. However, depending on the direction of a transaction (purchase or sales), a customer will either pay or be paid this position transfer fee.
A guarantee deposit should be contributed to have a position opened. Its amount usually ranges from 1% to 5% of the concluded transaction amount. As soon as a position is closed, the deposit may be withdrawn from the trading account (with profit or loss).
Thus, the costs of hedging are quite minor as compared with the hedged contract values. Hedging is intended to reduce the risk of potential losses rather than to derive any extra profit. So hedging efficiency may only be evaluated taking into account the core lines of business of a commercial company. A well-developed hedging program does not only minimize the risk but also reduced costs by disengaging the company’s funds.

FOREX RISK HEDGING EXAMPLES
Example 1: Import of goods from Europe
A U.S. importer concluded a EUR 100,000 contract for supply of goods from Europe. According to the contract, the importer prepaid 30%, for which purpose he had to convert dollars into Euros at the current rate, which stood at 0.9867. He was supposed to pay the remaining EUR 70,000 upon receipt of goods. As the delivery was to be made in two months, there was a risk of incurring losses for the importer as a result of the euro appreciation vs the dollar. As the importer deemed it more important to fix the profit rather than to make profit if the euro falls vs the dollar, the importer resolved to buy the remaining Euro amount in the Forex market. To purchase EUR 70,000 in the Forex market with credit leverage 1:100, the importer only needed $700 but, in order to maintain margin requirements if the market goes counter him, the importer opened an account with the deposit of $3,000.
Euro rose in price to 1.0694 in two months. With a long EUR position (purchase position) opened, his profit in that position came to $5,824 (or EUR 5,446), which is equivalent to his losses on dollar cash

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ForexGen | To Hedge or not to hedge


When I first started trading and heard about hedging I thought it was a great idea. Since then it has been a nightmare on a few occasions until I stopped using that trading method. The only way I have been able to trade out of a hedge was when it was small, less than 20 pips, and it was in the middle of a trend. The larger the hedge the harder it is to get out of.
Most people put on a hedge when they cannot emotionally or financially take the loss any longer. Most of the hedges are placed at the top or bottom of a movement in the market, so it becomes almost imposable to get out of. A hedge is usually at a point where you cannot take the loss any more so you lock it in the loss and then live with it. When you have a hedge in place it is a constant emotional drain of energy and seems to cloud your trading vision and your trading decision making ability.

There is a statement I believe is true which says, “The first loss is usually the smallest loss”. By using good money management techniques taking a small loss once in a while is part of trading. Like they say, make your losses small and let your winners run.
When a stop loss is placed properly and the market hits the stop loss, that is a signal that it might be best to look for a trade going in the other direction or watch out for a channel to be forming. Either way it is best to be out of the market until a good trend can be found or trade the channel and take some good small trades.
As you can gather I am not a fan of hedging. I see a lot of people lose money because they hedge their trades thinking they will get out of the trade and then realize that the swap they pay has eaten them up and they are still losing money but at a slower rate.
In summary, trade with stop losses, use good money management techniques, and trade in the direction of the trend on the 4-hour charts.

Forex Hedging is a trading strategy that enters both a long and a short position at the same time which reduced and eliminates risks. However, for new traders it is difficult to know when to exit which trades in order to end up with a net profit.
Forex hedging has emerged as one of the colloquial rescuing strategies for forex investors, individual investors, portfolio managers and corporations for protecting capitals. It is simply the purchase of insurance policy with respect to the currency position. Some real time incidents of rise and fall of forex trading are as follows

• The Canadian dollar faces a heavy fall against the US dollar since March 2007 due to the drastic decreases in the cost of crude oil.
• Even the value of Indian Rupees faces a heavy cut after huge capital was pulled way from the market by the foreign investors due to the global financial crunch.
• In spite of the recent highs attained by the Japanese yen, it falls against other currencies. This was basically caused due to the massive cutting of the rates.
Thus, hedging has emerged as the urgent need for forex traders, with such rampant rises and falls in forex industry.
A derivative, a reliable investment instrument, provides deeper insight to the forex traders regarding the capacity of the backup plans.
The two major kinds of derivatives used in forex hedging are
• Futures
• Options
1. Futures contract is one of the derivatives used by the forex traders for hedging. This follows the exchange agreement in which currencies are exchanged on a particular day, depending solely on the last second value of the closing date just like stocks, the currency futures are thereby sold in any market.
Example: If a forex trader chooses to use dollars for the respective longer position of euros in the current market (say 1.2700). What if the price drops? He then decides to have a short position of 1.2650. He believes that this hot would compensate the loss faced by the longer position. But then, there is no guarantee that the market would witness a rise after the short has been decided by the investor. Thus, to avoid the risk, the investor should go for short(USD/CHF) and long trading with EUR/USD. This creates the currency pairing of EUR/CHF with the 2 different pairs.
2. Internationally dealt businesses employ the other form of forex hedging.
For example, any company with higher number of customers in Europe will definitely be troubled if euro weakens. Obviously, then the earlier conversion rate of euros to dollars wont be applicable. But then it adopts a longer position in rates of dollars, when with respect to euros, it might recoup all the losses. In case, the fall in the rates of dollars is considered, the increased value of euros would cause increase in the profits. Thus, any kind of threat which the company might have faced gets neutralized.

At the same time, it's clever to stick to long for a particular currency pair, offering higher interests. After it, the pair which does not demand interest can be kept for short. Thus, creation of hedge in between the two currencies can be done through options.
Let's imagine, the investor takes the long at 116.00 of USD/JPY. Then, a further long for a put option of strike price is taken at 115.50. For break even, the price needs to go at least 20 pips. At the same time, if the price does not sink lesser than the 115.50, option cost would be lost. Put options would turn quite worthy enough the price goes down than 114. So subtracting the profit on options and loss on position, the investor faces a only loss of 70 pips. Thus, he is hedged, saving himself from stupendous loss.
Though hedging might sound as fool proof, it does not reduce the concept of risk return takeoff. Thus, hedging is not utilized for making money but to lessen the potential losses which might be caused. Thus, it should be adopted with concern.

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Thursday, November 27, 2008

ForexGen Real wealth is built on a foundation of security


Many forex managers who decide to start forex hedging trading funds have a great understanding of their forex investment strategy but are not quite sure what should be the terms of their hedge fund. This article will provide an overview of some of the more common terms for a forex hedge fund (fees, lock-ups, withdrawals, etc). As with any program a manager should not feel compelled to fit the terms of their specific program to these “common” terms.
Forex hedging is not for beginners, nor for those without a significant pool of risk capital to invest. In fact, hedge funds - generally speaking - are not wise investments for the average person.

First, let's discuss forex hedging trading What are they, exactly?
Hedge funds are private investment partnerships, usually managed by wealthy individuals - e.g. - other investors, business people, commodity pool operators and all-around financial tycoons.
However, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not impose any strict rules on who may start a hedge fund. In fact, if you won the lottery tomorrow, you could start your own hedge fund. This free-market, 'anyone can play' philosophy is the first high risk factor that should steer you clear of Forex hedging.
The second factor is the high risk associated with the strategies involved in forex hedging trading. You've probably heard about futures contracts, derivatives, 'put' options and the like, yes?
If you've been doing your homework, then you already know that these 'investments' revolve around the highly speculative trading strategy of 'selling short'. Really, this is why we call it forex hedging trading you're hedging your bets either for or against the given financial instrument based on short-term market fluctuations.
It is difficult enough for the average investor to predict short-term movements on every day stocks; but, try doing so on the even more volatile foreign exchange market and you'll understand why Forex hedging is so risky.

It takes years of experience, coupled with a very sophisticated understanding of the world economy, to profit from a forex hedging trading, and even more to manage one.
So, if you are investing for your future, your family's future, your children's education or any other closely held dream, then I suggest you stick to the time-honored mid and long-range investment strategies like stocks, bonds and IRAs. There are plenty of high-yield options in the latter category, especially.
And if it is wealth you're looking for, then consider starting your own business. A second income can help you get out of debt, and sock even more money into savings and investments.
Remember that the smartest forex 'hedge' you can make for your financial future!

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