Sunday, December 14, 2008

Experimental Studies of Rationality:

While most experimental studies suggest that traders are rational,
there are some examples of irrational behavior in some of these
studies.

One such study was done at the University of Arizona. In an experimental study, traders were told that a payout would be declared after each trading day, determined randomly from four possibilities - zero, eight, 28 or 60 cents. The average payout was 24 cents. Thus the share's expected value on the first trading day of a fifteen day experiment was $3.60 (24*15), the second day was $3.36 .... The traders were allowed to trade each day. The results of 60 suchexperiments is summarized in the following graph

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